Ukraine industry falls 4.7% in November

Обзоры по компаниям и отраслям 18.12.2013 Ukraine’s industrial output fell 4.7% yoy in November (-5.0% yoy for 11M13), according to state statistics released on Dec. 17. Machinery declined 17.2% yoy, metal production decreased 11.8% yoy, and chemicals production fell 7.4% yoy. Meanwhile, mining (+2.7% yoy) and utilities (+0.9% yoy) demonstrated growth. Alexander Paraschiy: Industrial output will finish 2013 at a loss, or -5.2% yoy by our estimates. For the next year, there are two counteracting dynamics at play. The current political crisis will extend itself through the 2015 presidential elections and weigh heavily on the real sector. On the other hand, after Dec. 17 Moscow agreement, we anticipate better access to the Russian market and the 1/3 gas price discount should decrease costs for metal and chemical industries, stimulating their output growth. Against this backdrop, we offer an optimistic scenario of industrial output reviving to 1.4% growth in 2014.