Ukraine August steel production hits monthly low

Макроэкономика 02.09.2014 Ukrainian steel production plummeted in August to 1.646 mmt (-40% yoy, -33% m/m), an industry association reported on Sept. 1, reaching a monthly low last demonstrated in November 2008 (1.597 mmt). In 8M14, steel production fell to 19.6 mmt (-11.5% yoy). Roman Topolyuk: The plunge in steel output was the result of railway infrastructure being damaged by warfare in the easternmost Donetsk and Luhansk regions (collectively known as Donbas), as well as the bombardment of certain enterprises. The delivery of raw materials such as coke and iron ore was undermined, and hurdles emerged for the shipping of finished goods. Enterprises have yet to release a breakdown of their monthly performance, but we estimate that the main contributors to sector’s adverse results were Yenakiyeve Steel (ENMZ UK, part of Metinvest), which has suspended production after its bombardment, and Alchevsk Steel (ALMK UK, part of IUD), which has suffered from a lack of coke supply, which also halted output in the first half of August. The operating results of Metinvest’s two flagship producers of flat steel – Ilyich Steel (MMKI UK) and Azovstal (AZST UK) – have also significantly worsened, we believe. Preliminarily, they planned to decrease output 45% and 20% m/m in August, respectively. The steelmakers located in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions are safer as of now and are likely to report some increased output in August. The sector’s operating result for September will be even worse, we expect, since the Donbas steelmakers will stand idle for longer periods and logistics constraints are getting worse. In 2011-12, Ukrainian steel producers generated around USD 1.5 bln in monthly export revenue for the country (25%-27% of total goods exports). The sector’s poor performance, therefore, was one of the drivers for the weakening hryvnia in August.