Highly fragile ceasefire holding, more complications ahead

Макроэкономика 08.09.2014 Over the weekend in Donbass, pro-Kremlin militants, allegedly supported by the Russian army, made numerous attempts to elicit counterattacks from the Ukrainian army to cause the fragile ceasefire to be broken. They reportedly shelled Ukrainian army positions in Mariupol and also attempted to take over the airport in Donetsk from the Ukrainian military. However, top officials, rather than declare a failed effort at peace, instead adhere to the ceasefire that was agreed upon last Friday in Minsk. In the meantime, the EU is planning to implement additional sanctions on Russian state-run energy and military companies to pressure the Kremlin to withdraw its military forces from Ukraine. In our opinion, the Kremlin will not relent. Instead, it will complicate the situation even further. As the West continues to pile even more severe sanctions on Russia to pressure it into submission, the Ukrainian economy will be pulled into a depression in 2014-15.