Hryvnia stays put, external markets unsupportive

Макроэкономика 28.11.2014 Yesterday, the hryvnia's trading environment was quite unsupportive as the Russian ruble fell by 3.2% in response to the failed attempt by OPEC meeting to support the price of oil. Over the past four days, the ruble lost more than 10%, closing at near 49/USD. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil dropped 9% over the same period. The weak sentiment incurred by the Russian ruble may increase risk aversion toward domestic currency assets and increases demand for FX in the CIS counties, ultimately resulting in managed currency devaluation to regain competitiveness. As an example this week, Armenia chose to devalue its currency. A prolonged ruble weakness will put pressure on the hryvnia, which yesterday closed up 0.5% in nominal terms and 1.6% in real weighted terms.