Minsk talks conclude with peace agreement

Макроэкономика 13.02.2015 Yesterday, the Minsk summit ended in early morning after the leaders of Ukraine, Germany, France and Russia agreed to a ceasefire. In short, the plan states that sides will maintain Ukraine's territorial integrity, remove all artillery and allow inspection by OSCE, withdraw all foreign troops and illegal military units from Ukraine's territory, grant amnesty to the militants in Donbas, hold elections in Donbas in accordance with Ukrainian law, enact constitutional changes with regional decentralization, and restore the Ukrainian army's control of the border with Russia by the end of 2015. As with every signed agreement with the Kremlin, we are skeptical. First, implementation is questionable even with OSCE oversight. Second, having an open border with Russia that supplied weaponry and soldiers (and officially denying its involvement) to Donbas is a guarantee that other clauses of the Minsk agreement could be breached. OSCE proved its less-than-required efficiency in terms of registering the wrongdoings and making a case for preventing future casualties. War raged under its watch. Hence, we expect the Donbas war to resume later in the year.