Ceasefire largely holds

Макроэкономика 16.02.2015 Although the Minsk-2 ceasefire took effect at midnight on Saturday, sporadic explosions still occurred near to key hot spots like the rail hub of Debaltseve, according to reporters present on the ground. While some sources reported that several Ukrainian soldiers were killed overnight and Ukrainian forces were shot at 60 times (per an AFP report), the ceasefire appears to be holding, at least from the perspective of the Ukrainian army. However, a German reporter interviewed pro-Kremlin militants who see the ceasefire agreement as no obstacle to resuming attacks on Debaltseve, the rail hub that has been defended by the Ukrainian army. The situation remains very strained on the ground; if the ceasefire indeed holds and survives a week, two weeks or a month, it would mean that the West's threat of more sanctions has made the Kremlin yield. The fear of more sanctions would plunge the Russian economy into a recession deeper than previously thought.