UAH regains some ground under NBU guidance

Макроэкономика 28.05.2015 According to Interfax-Ukraine, the NBU intervened yesterday, buying dollars at 21/USD and selling at 23/USD. At the close, the hryvnia's weighted-average rate increased 1.78% to 21.0413/USD, while Bloomberg reported a 2.09% rise. This contrasted with regional trends, whereby a stronger US dollar pushed other currencies down. The Russian ruble declined 2.16% yesterday, down a cumulative 4.36% over the past seven days. The Turkish lira fell by a much smaller margin, only 0.02%, while the Polish zloty was up 0.80% yesterday, reversing some losses from the day before when it dropped 2.09%. The dollar index to the basket of currencies of major advanced economies was up a slight 0.07% yesterday, and up 2.01% over the past week. The dollar's recent recovery, after a nearly two-month long retreat from the highs seen at the end of March, suggests that financial markets tend to believe that the US economy is recovering in 2Q after a weak 1Q. Next week, the monthly jobs report will be published. A strong reading of more than 200,000 jobs being added to the US economy would support the past week's trend for the dollar and further weaken EM currencies. For Ukraine's currency, a weak report is preferable as it would support the hryvnia and further extend its current stability. Otherwise, Ukrainian authorities will have to strive to meet the conditions required for the second IMF tranche this June.