Gasoline retail market in May

Макроэкономика 25.06.2015 The latest statistical data for May reveals that the retail gasoline consumption has been stabilizing after a collapse at the end of 1Q15. Raw statistical data shows that in 2Q 2015, the volumes of sales of gasoline and diesel have risen across the country. In May in particular, sales volumes rose +2.1% MoM and +0.3% to 152,000 tonnes and 107,200 tonnes, respectively. In April, the increase was more profound, which is explained by the seasonal factor. If data is adjusted for seasonality, then a recovery appears to be underway, albeit from a very low level seen in March, the first month that reflected the impact of massive currency devaluation that took place at the end of February (see table below). The seasonally-adjusted data for April-May shows that 2Q is going to be weaker than 1Q, suggesting that very early signs of stabilization might be seen in June's data or early in 3Q. The key risk is the expansion of the war in Donbas.