June inflation moderating but still high

Макроэкономика 07.07.2015 Last month, inflation moderated noticeably as month-on-month consumer prices rose just 0.4% following a 2.2% increase one month prior. Producer prices rose 0.6% from the previous month while they declined 0.4% one month prior. Overall, year-on-year CPI and PPI slowed in June by 0.9 and 4.1 percentage points to 57.5% and 38.1%, respectively. As our expectation for CPI was 0.6% MoM in June, the actual figure was better than expected. Despite this, we maintain our forecast of year-end CPI, which is 52% YoY. Due to high inflation, our year-end FX forecast for the UAH is 25/USD.