Russian debt status remains uncertain

Макроэкономика 15.07.2015 After Ukrainian government officials met with the US President and other top officials, a FT article reported the controversial Russian US$3bn Eurobond has been classified by IMF as official debt, although there has yet been no official announcement. This classification was first mentioned nearly a month ago in another FT article published on June 19, attributed to an anonymous IMF source, which the IMF has neither publicly denied nor confirmed. On June 23rd, Bloomberg posted a similar claim, again, with no named source. If this is true and the debt is paid in December, Ukraine's FX reserves would amount to US$9.5bn rather than the US12.5bn forecast for year-end 2015. As this would put downward pressure on the hryvnia's FX rate, this fall should become quite heated in both political and economic terms. A mini political crisis could arise as many MPs in the coalition could punish the current administration for repaying a sizable debt to an aggressor country that has been waging war on Ukraine.