UAH routinely fluctuates within the 21-23/band

Макроэкономика 05.10.2015 Last Friday, the hryvnia slid 0.45% versus the dollar to 21.15/USD, a routine decline for this market, still remaining within the 21-23/USD de facto band on volume of US$216m, an amount that has become normal over the past year. It appears that the NBU intends to continue this FX policy of tight capital controls until late 2016 when IMF directives on emerging markets' growth trajectory becomes clearer. For the time being, their growth story has been predominately down, as exemplified in yesterday's FT blog "Global growth shows clear signs of slowdown" by Gavyn Davies which points precisely to this factor. Hence, any discussions of phasing out the NBU capital control measures is premature. In the US, even though last month's jobs report indicated clear signs of a slowdown, the markets still anticipate that the key policy rate will be increased in December.