A new chance for retail FX loans

Макроэкономика 07.10.2015 Parliament has passed a populist and highly criticized bill in July 2015 making every FX retail loan eligible for forced conversion into hryvnias at the exchange rate effective at the origination date. While the bill was never signed into law, banks were required to submit an offer that would increase the performance of their FX retail loan portfolios. The new proposal clearly resembles the first version of the bill that was introduced back in 2014 that never made it to the floor. Under the most recent offer, only mortgages up to US$150,000 for primary residences are eligible for a 25% reduction of the outstanding debt. All fines and penalties incurred during the 2014-2015 crisis will be waived upon the restructuring. The bill has the support of NBU, the IMF, and the self-regulatory organization NABU. The upcoming election on October 25 gives the bill a promising chances of being ratified by Parliament. It includes clauses for a 100% reduction of the outstanding debts to those wounded or killed in the Donbas war. Although this will benefit MPs running for re-election, we do not expect it to have a material impact on banks. However, with only three more meetings in October during which a vote could be held, we doubt it will occur this month.