Hryvnia routinely stable, global markets digest current data

Макроэкономика 19.10.2015 At the domestic market, the hryvnia remains quite predictable as tight capital still looms over the domestic market. The NBU held another auction on Friday, where it bought a total of US$37.80m at 21.3259/USD (a quite marginal difference from the FX rate at the previous auctions). Local elections on October 25 have an obvious influence on Ukrainian authorities' current FX policy. Meanwhile, global FX markets are preparing themselves for a US Fed interest rate increase. While market indicators show that the Fed is unlikely to raise the key rate this year, an article in today's FT.com on the results of a survey of private sector economists indicates a high probability of initial step-up increases actually occurring this December. We concur with this view. If it becomes the widespread consensus, upward pressure on the USD should follow, which is likely to have an impact on EM currencies as well.