Ukraine 2017 budget revenue reaches plan, rising 32% yoy

Макроэкономика 04.01.2018 Ukraine's 2017 state budget revenue rose 32% yoy to UAH 793.6 bln, which was almost in line with the plan, exceeding it by UAH 221.6 mln, the State Treasury reported on Jan. 3. In particular, tax revenue grew 23% yoy to UAH 448.9 bln while customs revenue swelled 30.8% yoy to UAH 303.3 bln. VAT reimbursement increased 32% yoy to UAH 120.1 bln, while revenue generated from social payments (personal income tax and Pension Fund contributions paid by employers) jumped 58% yoy to UAH 19.8 bln. Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The goverment was able to reach its revenue target owing to higher economic activity, better payment discipline of businesses and improved tax collection, particularly customs. Higher inflation also played a role. The fact that the amount of collected budget revenue reached its target implies that tax collection authorities continue working in the so-called “manual regime,” in which the amount of taxes paid by certain business is based not on its performance but on the subjective view of tax authorities on how much taxes need to be paid. This indicates that Western reforms still have a long way to go. The 2018 state budget envisages UAH 913.6 bln in revenue, which would be 15% higher yoy. The slower pace of projected growth implies many one-off payments in 2017. In particular, the minimum wage should increase only 16% after doubling in 2017. The budget is planned for 3% annual GDP growth, which does not entail much potential for boosted tax revenue from business activity.