Ukraine’s industrial production falls 1.8% in 2012

Макроэкономика 18.01.2013 Industrial output slumped 7.6% yoy in December and 2012 output fell 1.8% yoy, according to UkrStat. All core industries except utilities (+5.8% yoy in December) reported a decline: metallurgy (-11.7%), machinery (-18.8%), oil refinery (-34.7%), mining (-6.7%) and chemical industry (-1.4%). Alexander Paraschiy: The December statistics were much weaker than we anticipated, yet the 1.8% industrial output decline is very close to our estimate for 2012 (-1.7% yoy). Still, we expected that a minor revival of resource markets at the end of 2012 would underpin Ukraine’s core sectors, which hasn’t happened so far. Now it looks that a potential recovery in 2013 might not be as easy as we had hoped.