UAH gains versus the US dollar echoing regional trend

Макроэкономика 23.04.2015 The hryvnia gained 0.66% yesterday versus the US dollar on US$145m in trading. The currency's direction now appears to be uncertain. Trading sideways following recent volatile trading over the past few weeks, the hryvnia is following the trend of the US dollar index (DXY), the euro, and the Russian ruble itself which seems to have hit its peak over the past few days after its recent strong rebound. Such uncertainty should persist until the US Fed decides whether it will increase rates in June or postpone until September. The market's perception is that the Fed's first rate increase since the 2008 financial crisis scheduled to occur between June and September depends heavily on statistical data. The less likelihood of a postponement increases the US dollar's resuming its steady recovery. Should this occur, EM currencies will weaken. Conversely, a weakened US dollar would be beneficial to EM currencies, providing stability.